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WTNT34 KNHC 081740
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018
…CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA…
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA…
…RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI…230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…978 MB…28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next
couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida
Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move
northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night
and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…
Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL…8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL…5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL…4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL…2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend…
Western Cuba…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas…4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast…2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.
Yucatan Peninsula…1 to 2 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
