Hurricane Maria Advisory #009 – 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017
…MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE…
…THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING…
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 95 MI…150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…959 MB…28.32 INCHES
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the U. S. Virgin Islands.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane
Warning for the British Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning
for Anguilla.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the Dominican
Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane
Warnings will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby
islands this afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across
the Leeward Islands late today and tonight, over the extreme
northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night, and approach
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is
expected to be a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the
Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of
the Leeward Islands by late today, with tropical storm conditions
beginning during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions should
spread through the remainder of the hurricane warning area tonight
through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area Tuesday through Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible later today or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area through
tonight.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near where
the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide…
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands…6 to 9 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands, and the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands through Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches are expected
across Puerto Rico. Maria is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to
Anguilla, eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, as well as the
Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
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