Climatologist with the Dominica Meteorological Service, Annie Carrette-Joseph, stated that the Caribbean will see a busy hurricane season this year.
She presented the hurricane forecast for 2016 during this year’s Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum at the fort young hotel on Monday.
Carrette-Joseph informed officials at the forum that this year would present a 52% chance of La Niña conditions from June to August.
El Niño is characterised by warm ocean temperatures and the events that surround it. La Niña is the opposite.
“Drought conditions for the region will gradually alleviate. For the short to midterm period up to August 2016, there are no concerns for most of the region. For the long term, December 2015 to November 2016, drought conditions are still possible across the Lesser Antilles,” she reported.
She also presented the rainfall probalistic forecast for the wet season up to November 2016
“June to November rainfall is forecast to be above [normal] to normal in much of the region. Roughly 80% confidence that the second half of the wet season will be wetter or usual in the ABC Islands, Belize, the Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands.”
The implications of this forecast are that moist conditions may favour mosquito breeding and chances of high rainfall.
In the next three months, it is predicted that there will be about 35-70 wet days which may result in surface wetness, disruption of outdoor activities and increased chances of flash flooding.
Between June and August temperatures will be above [normal] to normal both nights and days. These may result in intense heat causing increased health risks from heat exposure and higher than usual energy costs.
Meanwhile, the climatologist forecasts that a very strong El Niño is fading and is expected to disappear by May or June.
La Niña chances are 70% at the peak of the hurricane season between August and October.
“Klotzbach & Gray forecast the probability for at least one major category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane tracking into the Caribbean at 10-20 degrees north latitude and 60-88 degrees west longitude. That’s a 40% chance; this is close to the 20th century average of 42%.”
She says the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Caribbean Forecast indicates two named storms and one hurricane predicted to make landfall in the Lesser Antilles.
“Tropical North, Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea and Mexico to include Belize, a possible 12 named storms and seven hurricanes with four intense hurricanes,” she reported.
